シギ・チドリ類の経年変化
2000~2019年のシギチドリ類の経年変化Changes in Shorebirds from 2000~2019
モニタリング調査は、日本全国のサイトで実施され、春（4-５月）、秋（8-9月）、冬（12-2月）の期間中の各種の最大観察数を用いています。
図は、階層ベイズモデルという分析手法を用いたシギ・チドリ類各種の2000-2019年（春、秋、冬）の変化を表したものです（データは2020年2月までのもの）。
2019年（右端）を100として、中央の線が中央値を表し、上下の色の濃い部分が95%信用区間です（右肩下がりは減少を、右肩上がりは増加を示します）。
MCMC法による計算を2万回行い、前半の1万回を切捨て、以後4回ごとに抽出する計算を、初期値の異なる3本の連鎖について行い、事後分布としました。
モデルの収束診断は、プロットの目視と、Gelman-Rubin 統計量（R-hat<1.1）を併用して診断しました（1.1＜R-hat<1.2は赤枠、1.2以上は非収束としています）。
Monitoring surveys were conducted at sites throughout Japan, using the maximum number of observations for each species during the spring (Apr.-May), Autumn (Aug.-Sep.), and winter (Dec.-Feb.) periods.
The figure shows the changes in each species of shorebird from 2000-2019 (spring, fall, and winter) using a hierarchical Bayesian model. (Data are through February 2020.)
With 2019 (far right) as 100, the middle line represents the median, and the darker areas above and below are the 95% confidence intervals (falling right indicates a decrease, rising right indicates an increase).
The MCMC method was used for 20,000 calculations, and the first 10,000 calculations were truncated and extracted every four times thereafter for the three chains with different initial values to obtain the posterior distribution.
The convergence of the model was diagnosed using both visual inspection of the plots and the Gelman-Rubin statistic (R-hat＜1.1)： 1.1＜R-hat＜1.2 is marked with a red box, and 1.2 and above is marked as non-convergence.
References
Amano, T., Székely, T., Koyama, K., Amano, H. and Sutherland, W. J. (2010) A framework for monitoring the status of populations: an example from wader Biological Conservation 143: 2238-2247.
タマシギ Rostratula benghalensis
(Greater Painted Snipe)
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Resident breeder Migrant breeder Accidental visitor |
Paddy field Wetland |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ミヤコドリ Haematopus ostralegus
(Oystercatcher)
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Winter visitor Irregular visitor |
Tidal flat Estuary |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ハジロコチドリ Charadrius hiaticula
(Ringed Plover)
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Irregular visitor Winter visitor |
Tidal flat Estuary Reclaimed land |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
コチドリ Charadrius dubius
(Little Ringed Plover)
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Resident breeder Migrant breeder |
Riverland Tidal flat Paddy field Reclaimed land |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
イカルチドリ Charadrius placidus
(Long-billed Plover)
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Resident breeder Migrant breeder |
Riverland Lake Paddy field |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
シロチドリ Charadrius alexandrinus
(Kentish Plover)
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Resident breeder Migrant breeder |
Sandy bearch Tidal flat Estuary Riverland Reclaimed land |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
メダイチドリ Charadrius mongolus
(Mongolian Plover)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Sandy bearch Tidal flat Estuary Riverland |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
オオメダイチドリ Charadrius leschenaultii
(Greater Sand Plover)
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Passage visitor Accidental visitor |
Sandy bearch Tidal flat Estuary |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ムナグロ Pluvialis fulva
(Pacific Golden Plover)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Tidal flat Paddy field Cultivated land Grassland |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ダイゼン Pluvialis squatarola
(Grey Plover)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Tidal flat Estuary |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
キョウジョシギ Arenaria interpres
(Ruddy Turnstone)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Tidal flat Estuary River Paddy field |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ヨーロッパトウネン Calidris minuta
(Little Stint)
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Irregular visitor Accidental visitor |
Tidal flat Sandy bearch |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
トウネン Calidris ruficollis
(Rufous-necked Stint)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Tidal flat Estuary Sandy bearch Paddy field Wetland |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ヒバリシギ Calidris subminuta
(Long-toed Stint)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Paddy field Wetland Reclaimed land |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
オジロトウネン Calidris temminckii
(Temminck's Stint)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Paddy field Wetland River Pond |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ウズラシギ Calidris acuminata
(Sharp-tailed Sandpiper)
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Passage visitor | Paddy field Lotus field Wetland Reclaimed land Tidal flat |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ハマシギ Calidris alpina
(Dunlin)
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Winter visitor Passage visitor |
Tidal flat Lake Sandy bearch |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
サルハマシギ Calidris ferruginea
(Curlew Sandpiper)
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Passage visitor | Tidal flat Estuary Paddy field |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
コオバシギ Calidris canutus
(Red Knot)
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Passage visitor | Tidal flat Estuary Sandy bearch Paddy field |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
オバシギ Calidris tenuirostris
(Great Knot)
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Passage visitor | Tidal flat Estuary Reef Sandy bearch Paddy field |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ミユビシギ Calidris alba
(Sanderling)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Sandy bearch Tidal flat Estuary |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ヘラシギ Eurynorhynchus pygmeus
(Spoon-billed Sandpiper)
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Passage visitor Irregular visitor |
Tidal flat Sandy bearch |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
エリマキシギ Philomachus pugnax
(Ruff)
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Passage visitor | Paddy field Wetland River Pond Tidal flat |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
キリアイ Limicola falcinellus
(Broad-billed Sandpiper)
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Passage visitor | Tidal flat Estuary Sandy bearch Paddy field |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
オオハシシギ Limnodromus scolopaceus
(Long-billed Dowitcher)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Paddy field Lotus field pond Tidal flat |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ツルシギ Tringa erythropus
(Spotted Redshank)
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Passage visitor | Paddy field Lotus field Wetland Tidal flat |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
アカアシシギ Tringa totanus
(Common Redshank)
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Passage visitor Migrant breeder |
Tidal flat Paddy field Lotus field Wetland |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
コアオアシシギ Tringa stagnatilis
(Marsh Sandpiper)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Paddy field Wetland pond Tidal flat |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
アオアシシギ Tringa nebularia
(Common Greenshank)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Tidal flat Estuary Paddy field Wetland pond |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
クサシギ Tringa ochropus
(Green Sandpiper)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
River Lake Paddy field Wetland |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
タカブシギ Tringa glareola
(Wood Sandpiper)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Paddy field Wetland River Lake |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
キアシシギ Heteroscelus brevipes
(Grey-tailed Tattler)
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Passage visitor | Tidal flat Estuary Paddy field River Reef |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
イソシギ Actitis hypoleucos
(Common Sandpiper)
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Resident breeder Migrant breeder Passage visitor |
River Lake Paddy field Tidal flat Estuary |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ソリハシシギ Xenus cinereus
(Terek Sandpiper)
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Passage visitor | Tidal flat Estuary Paddy field River |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
オグロシギ Limosa limosa
(Black-tailed Godwit)
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Passage visitor | Paddy field Wetland Tidal flat Estuary |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
オオソリハシシギ Limosa lapponica
(Bar-tailed Godwit)
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Passage visitor | Tidal flat Estuary Sandy bearch |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ダイシャクシギ Numenius arquata
(Eurasian Curlew)
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Passage visitor Winter visitor |
Tidal flat Estuary Sandy bearch |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ホウロクシギ Numenius madagascariensis
(Far Eastern Curlew)
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Passage visitor | Tidal flat Estuary Sandy bearch |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
チュウシャクシギ Numenius phaeopus
(Whimbrel)
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Passage visitor | Tidal flat Reef Cultivated land River |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ヤマシギ Scolopax rusticola
(Eurasian Woodcock)
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Migrant breeder Winter visiter |
Forest Cultivated land Grassland Wetland |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
タシギ Gallinago gallinago
((Common) Snipe)
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Winter visiter Passage visiter |
Paddy field Lake Wetland Riverland |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
オオジシギ Gallinago hardwickii
(Latham's Snipe/Japanese Snipe)
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Migrant breeder Passage visiter |
Grassland |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
セイタカシギ Himantopus himantopus
(Black-winged Stilt)
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Passage visitor Resident breeder Irregular visitor Winter visitor |
Tidal flat Estuary Paddy field Lake Wetland |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
アカエリヒレアシシギ Phalaropus lobatus
(Red-necked Phalarope)
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Passage visitor | Marine Inner bay Paddy field Wetland |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ツバメチドリ Glareola maldivarum
(Indian Pratincole)
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Passage visitor Migrant breeder |
Cultivated land Grassland Tidal flat Reclaimed land |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
クロツラヘラサギ Platalea minor
(Black-faced Spoonbill)
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Winter visiter Accidental visitor |
Tidal flat Paddy field Lake River Wetland |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ツクシガモ Tadorna tadorna
(Common Shelduck)
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Winter visiter Irregular visitor |
Tidal flat Inner Bay |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
ズグロカモメ Larus saundersi
(Saunders's Gull)
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Winter visiter Irregular visitor |
Tidal flat Estuary |
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| NorthwardSpring(Apr.-MAy) | SouthwardAutumn(Aug.-Sep.) | WinteringWinter(Dec.-Feb.) |
